Osama bin Laden’s death only part of the plan
Some have declared him the hide and seek champion of the world. This man remained on the FBI’s most wanted list for over a decade, through three U.S. presidential terms. And, on May 2, 2011, he
was declared dead.
Much of the world celebrated Osama bin Laden’s death as a victory. In some ways it was. Al-Qaeda was officially decapitated on that first Monday in May. But the terrorist organization’s battles stretch far beyond suicide bombings, and in other ways, they are the victors.
The U.S. has not won this “War on Terror” yet, and it may actually be heading completely away from victory.
Since its establishment in 1988, Al-Qaeda has worked toward removing Christian and Jewish presences in Islamic nations. Its primary means of accomplishing this is through violent acts of terrorism designed to instill fear in the general population. Its armed forces, which could be as few as hundreds or as large as thousands, aren’t affiliated with any state, and operatives are located across multiple nations in the middle east.
Al-Qaeda, and thusly Osama bin Laden, took the international spotlight and provoked the United States with the September 11, 2001 attacks – events of a caliber the U.S. hadn’t seen since Pearl Harbor. Shortly after the attacks, President George W. Bush declared a “War on Terror,” and deployed military to Afghanistan to seek Osama bin Laden and any Al-Qaeda members responsible for the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
This is exactly what Al-Qaeda wanted.
About four years after the September 11 attacks, Al-Quds Al Arabi, a London-based, independent Arab newspaper, published excerpts from a document titled “Al-Qaeda’s Strategy to the Year 2020”. Among those excerpts was a simple, five step plan to defeat the United States by spreading its resources thin. While many may believe the U.S. is currently winning the “War on Terror,” the portion of Al-Qaeda’s plan the country’s actions fulfill suggests otherwise.
Step one: Provoke the United States into invading a Muslim country.
This step has been over a decade in the making. United States armed forces still occupy Afghanistan and Iraq, and it’s still uncertain how much involvement the U.S. will ultimately take in Libya.
It is clear that when the topic of pulling out of the middle east is brought up, even under the Obama administration, it’s all talk and no game. One of Obama’s primary campaign promises was a timely withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. (President Obama announced an exit date for Iraq in 2009: December 31, 2011.) The fact that forces are still touring in both countries doesn’t only cost the U.S. money, it costs lives. More on that later, in step five.
Step two: Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
Despite the Bush administration’s ascertainment that Afghan and Iraqi citizens welcomed the United States’ presence, not everyone in those nations was happy about the occupation. One of the major reasons for Afghan opposition is the high numbers of civilian casualties which has risen in recent years. According to the UN’s annual report on the civilian death toll in Afghanistan, 2,777 civilians were killed in 2010. Al Jazerra notes that this number is a 15 percent increase from 2009 and akin to numbers last seen at the start of the war.
In Iraq, local opposition was strongest in 2008 when the U.S. proposed a security pact to extend the occupation for three years. The New York Times reported that many Iraqis viewed the “prospects of a long-term American troop presence as demeaning and humiliating.” Obviously, not all citizens of Iraq or Afghanistan are welcoming to U.S. military.
Step three: Expand the conflict to neighboring countries, and engage the U.S. in a long war of attrition.
In 2001, the United States began the war in Afghanistan. In 2003, the first troops were deployed in Iraq. Since the beginning of those two wars, talks of additional infiltrations and interventions have hit the table, including Iran. The U.S. has already begun to interject in the Libyan civil war sparked by anti-government protests. While the objectives of each of these wars don’t all relate directly to Al-Qaeda, they still qualify as expanding conflict to neighboring countries. The United States’ confrontations in the middle east have lasted longer than the Vietnam War, also qualifying the second clause in this step of Al-Qaeda’s plan.
Step four: Convert Al-Qaeda into an ideology.
This step in Al-Qaeda’s plan for the year 2020 has yet to be achieved, but it remains a realistic goal. In March of 2010, the Washington Times reported that, while remaining small, Al-Qaeda’s network in North Africa has shown some growth.
The terror organization’s main ideology to eradicate those condemned by Islam (namely Judeo-Christians) seems to still be resonating, though still on a small scale. While unlikely, it isn’t impossible that Al-Qaeda may still grow to a size that could be considered an embraceable ideology.
Step five: U.S. economy collapse.
National debt for the United States continues to climb to all-time highs. As of this writing, the national debt is approximately $14.3 trillion. The U.S. has been in its current economic trench, the Late 2000s recession, for the last three to four years with little end in sight. The wars in the middle east have certainly not helped this debt. Monetary cost for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have totaled over an estimated $1 trillion, and the wars aren’t over yet.
Such exorbitant military spending, along with bailouts of major American corporations and banks have both played a significant role in increasing the national debt. Add an additional $2.4 trillion in personal debt, according to the Federal Reserve, and it’s evident that the economy is not in its best place, and its future is highly unclear.
Aside from the financial cost, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost the lives of thousands of soldiers and civilians. In 2010, the Washington Post reported the total death toll of U.S. military alone to be over 1,000 in Afghanistan and 4,366 in Iraq. This doesn’t include other military and civilians, which adds thousands more to the count.
It’s an unfortunate fact that a simple majority of these steps have been executed successfully. Whether or not a mass number of people will embrace Al-Qaeda as an “ideology” has yet to be seen. But based on the plan outlined in 2005, it appears as if the United States is headed directly for the fifth and final step of Al-Qaeda’s plan for success.
And, at that point, Osama bin Laden’s death will mean nothing.
It all comes down to the fact that the United States is spreading itself too thin and doesn’t set its priorities correctly. In one recent example, congress debated cutting funding for public broadcasting while maintaining a military budget that has cost the U.S. over $1 trillion over the last decade.
The Perpetuity of Terrorism, the United States
As previously mentioned, Al-Qaeda has been continuing to grow, though at a slow pace, even while the U.S. has been fighting a war on terror for almost a decade. Although Osama bin Laden has been removed from the top of the organization, another leader will likely arise. The Christian Science Monitor reported one week after the announcement of bin Laden’s death that Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden’s chief strategist, is the most likely Al-Qaeda leader to take bin Laden’s place. So, while Al-Qaeda’s head may have been chopped off, it could just as soon grow back.
Other terrorist organizations exist beyond Al-Qaeda. Of course, not all of them have an axe to grind with the United States, but if Al-Qaeda were to fall completely, the world would not be free of terror.
The death of Osama bin Laden comes with a reminder that the United States has sacrificed many of its military men and women and contributed to the economic downfall it has seen in recent years all to dethrone a man who has been in hiding for years and will simply be replaced. And some of the costliest issues related to the United States’ priorities are not apparent in the death toll or debt figures.
For example: Nearly one in ten American citizens are without a job today, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and roughly 17.4 million households in the U.S. face food shortages, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. These two important issues, among many others, remain hardly addressed when compared to the amount of attention given to wars abroad. And while there is no direct correlation between the wars and these domestic issues, the level of spending the federal government is willing to dedicate to the war vastly overshadows that for social issues at home.
Osama bin Laden is dead, but it has hardly meant victory for the United States. The retaliation to the September 11 attacks has contributed to a lack of domestic support for Americans, and while Al-Qaeda’s leader is dead, the extreme costs of war, both financial and human, are exactly what he wanted all along. Bin Laden’s death is not an end to terrorism - the real event worth celebrating.